US Stock Weekly Report 2026/06/15–06/21: New Fed Chair Debut + Middle East Ceasefire + SpaceX IPO — A Full Market Scan of the Week
Three main themes this week: ① New Fed Chair Warsh's debut leans hawkish, with 9 FOMC members backing rate hikes and sharp market volatility; ② US-Iran ceasefire reached, the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, oil prices pull back and risk assets rebound; ③ SpaceX secures an investment-grade rating plus IPO retail orders surpassing $70 billion. ZhiRun Strategy: fully recouped losses after the nonfarm payrolls plunge, but shifted to a wait-and-see stance after the Fed's hawkish turn. ModMark: XOM +100%, NVDA rebounds, AMD advances. Gold rangebound around $940.
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II. High-Frequency Ticker Rankings
Based on ticker mention frequency across 180+ messages in 11 Discord channels:
Rank
Ticker
Mention Frequency
Sector
Weekly Direction
1
NVDA
High
Semiconductors/AI
ModMark's $217.5c → rebounded to $3.00+ ✅
2
SOXL/MUU
High
Semiconductor ETF
Zhirun planned to buy but paused due to "already rallied"
3
XOM
Medium-High
Energy
ModMark $150c → +100% 🔥
4
TSLA
Medium
EV
Musk dynamics channel continuously updated
5
MU
Medium
Memory
Zhirun planned to buy + AI storage theme
6
AMD
Medium
Semiconductors
ModMark's option pushed from $1.84 → $2.57+ ✅
7
ORCL
Medium
Software
Zhirun: "About to recover all post-earnings losses"
8
META
Medium
Tech
Zhirun: "Back at $600; the dip-buying window may be closing"
9
MSFT
Medium
Tech
Zhirun: "Back at $400" + China offers multiple AI models
10
Gold/XAU
Medium-High
Gold
Range-bound around $940; pulled back from $946 after ceasefire
Additional Watchlist
Ticker
Source
Event
IGV
Zhirun
Bought $30K at $92.83 → software sector rebound
VRT/GEV
Zhirun
Planned purchase → energy + liquid cooling
SPY
ModMark
Rebounded after a single-day -2.5% plunge
III. Core Views and Disagreements on Popular Names
NVDA (Nvidia)
Bullish
Bearish/Cautious
ModMark's option profits ($1.87→$3.00+)
BofA report: fund concentration at 80%, historic high
Continued AI compute expansion = essential demand
Semiconductor pullback risk rising
Grok model lands on Databricks
Hawkish Fed = valuation pressure on tech stocks
Point of Disagreement: Zhirun believes "concentration in semiconductors at a historic high of 80% = significant capital entering risk-off mode," but simultaneously acknowledges the AI trend is irreversible. ModMark continues to play the NVDA rebound with options.
XOM (ExxonMobil)
Bullish
Bearish/Cautious
ModMark's $150c → +100% 🔥
Middle East ceasefire = downward pressure on oil
Hormuz resumes but may only to 70%
Gasoline below $4 = demand-side cooling
Point of Disagreement: Short-term geopolitical premium fading vs. medium-to-long-term OPEC production cuts + energy security theme. ModMark plays short-term options; Zhirun mentions energy + liquid cooling (VRT, GEV).
META (Meta Platforms)
Bullish
Bearish/Cautious
Zhirun: "Back at $600; dip-buying opportunity"
Hawkish Fed = valuation pressure on growth stocks
Ad recovery + AI empowerment
Ongoing social media competition
Gold (XAUUSD)
Bullish
Bearish/Cautious
Hawkish Fed → long-term inflation concerns
Middle East ceasefire = safe-haven demand cooling
Gold has support at $940
Elliott Wave: "Must reclaim $4,458 for any improvement"
Point of Disagreement: Short-term safe-haven cooling vs. long-term inflation hedge. Gold traded in a narrow $938–$947 range this week.
IV. Predictions Validated or Invalidated This Week
✅ Validated
Prediction
Source
Result
"After the non-farm payroll plunge, US equities have largely recovered losses"
Zhirun 6/15
✅ Fully validated — index hit new highs
"Stay firmly long; don't be distracted by macro noise"
Zhirun 6/15
✅ Validated — but turned to wait-and-see after the Fed
XOM $150c bullish call
ModMark
✅ +100% ($1.54→$3.40+)
NVDA $217.5c rebound
ModMark
✅ +60% ($1.87→$3.00+)
AMD option push
ModMark
✅ +40% ($1.84→$2.57+)
ORCL recovers post-earnings losses
Zhirun
✅ Validated
META back at $600
Zhirun
✅ Validated
MSFT back at $400
Zhirun
✅ Validated
⚠️ Partially Validated / Pending
Prediction
Source
Status
"If Warsh is dovish → short squeeze continues"
Zhirun
❌ Warsh turned hawkish → reversed
"SOXL + MU semiconductor positions"
Zhirun
⏸️ Paused because "already rallied"
IGV software rebound
Zhirun
🔄 Bought at $92.83; pending validation
❌ Invalidated
Prediction
Source
Result
"New Fed Chair could be dovish"
Market expectations
❌ Warsh turned hawkish; 9 members back rate hikes
"Middle East tensions persist → oil keeps rising"
Some traders
❌ US-Iran ceasefire; oil prices pull back
V. Next Week's Watchlist
🔭 Core Observations
Event
Timing
Impact
Fed Chair Warsh follow-up remarks
Next week
Hawkish framing vs. Zhirun's view that "it wasn't fully hawkish"
This week's lesson: Even if you get the broad direction right (long), sudden policy shifts (the Fed's hawkish turn) can reverse the situation in an instant. Zhirun shifted from "stay firmly long" to "patiently wait" — that's discipline.
ModMark delivered an outstanding week — XOM +100%, NVDA +60%, AMD +40%. His "PAYtient" strategy (waiting for an extreme red day to enter) was validated during this week's -2.5% plunge.
Next week's biggest focus: How the market digests the Fed's hawkish framing. If inflation data stays hot → rate hike expectations intensify → tech stocks pressured. If data cools → under Warsh's "data is king" framework → market turns optimistic again.
SpaceX IPO = the hottest topic of the week. $70B in retail orders + investment-grade rating = potentially the largest IPO ever. If the 20% retail allocation really happens → retail euphoria.
Gold hovering at $940 = the market's dual tug-of-war between inflation and geopolitics. Ceasefire is bearish vs. hawkish Fed is bullish → gold's direction pick is imminent.
