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US Premarket Macro Brief｜June CPI Cools, Fed Decides Tonight, Yield Curve Still Flat (2026-07-28)

June US CPI YoY eased to 3.5% (from 4.2%) as the US-Iran ceasefire cooled energy prices, snapping a five-month reacceleration streak. Core PCE YoY still runs at 3.4%, well above the Fed's 2% target. The FOMC begins its July 28-29 meeting today, with Fed Funds futures pricing a near-certain hold. 10Y-2Y spread sits at +36bp—positive but razor-thin. Verdict: Neutral-toward-cautious; macro tail risks dominate.