SPCX 7-Day Snapshot: Starship Test Flight Delay, Lockup Warning, and Clear Sentiment-Price Divergence

Since SpaceX (SPCX) listed at an IPO price of US$135 on June 12, 2026, its stock has been on a roller-coaster ride. This article consolidates daily news sentiment and closing-price changes across the most recent seven trading sessions (2026-07-15 to 2026-07-23), and examines whether sentiment and price have moved in sync.

I. Daily Data at a Glance

[^Note] July 23 data is intraday (before the close) and has not yet formed a complete trading day.

II. Daily Sentiment and Price Action

2026-07-15 (Wed): Close US$135.27, -0.60%

The day's close touched the US$135 IPO price for the first time, and the market was in a heavy wait-and-see mood. News that Russell indexes would include SPCX began to ferment, with dip-buyers temporarily holding the line, but the Tesla-SpaceX merger talk remained anchored only in Baird's "within 12 to 18 months" expectation, leaving sentiment neutral. Overall tone: neutral to slightly bearish, with a marginal price decline.

2026-07-16 (Thu): Close US$131.11, -3.08%

Major negative events clustered together. SpaceX's planned 13th Starship test flight was scrubbed at the last minute due to an engine ignition anomaly (CNBC ran "SpaceX aborts Starship test flight, sending stock lower"), and the stock first rose, then fell sharply during the session. On the same day, Reuters published a lengthy analysis warning "SpaceX selloff an ominous sign as lockup expiry looms," pointing out that 911.5 million shares would begin trading after the 180-day lockup expired, potentially releasing up to 455.8 million additional shares. Sentiment: strongly negative; price fell in lockstep.

2026-07-17 (Fri): Close US$123.99, -5.43%

SPCX officially broke below the US$135 IPO price. The lockup-expiration overhang continued to weigh, and Axios ran the headline "SpaceX falls under IPO price, as lockup expirations loom." Volume expanded to 83.71 million shares, with clear characteristics of panic selling. Sentiment: extremely negative; this was the largest single-day drop of the week.

2026-07-20 (Mon): Close US$119.85, -3.34%

Carrying over last week's panic, the intraday low hit US$119.68, a new 52-week low. Although Bloomberg reported that analysts had raised the probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger to 90%, the market remained focused on the lockup overhang and institutional profit-taking. Sentiment: predominantly negative, though merger tailwinds began to creep in. Price continued to slide.

2026-07-21 (Tue): Close US$123.54, +3.08% (the week's only up day)

A major sentiment shift occurred that day. On one hand, SpaceX announced that the 13th Starship test flight had been rescheduled to July 23 (Thursday), which the market read as a confirmed positive. On the other hand, Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation continued to build, with analysts raising the probability to 90%, lifting the stock premarket and intraday. Reuters and Stocktwits simultaneously ran "TSLA Stock Down, SPCX Stock Up Premarket As Merger Buzz Grows." The close marked the week's only green day. Sentiment: clearly improving; price rose in tandem.

2026-07-22 (Wed): Close US$115.26, -6.70%

This was the week's most dramatic "sentiment-price divergence" day. The day's news headlines were broadly constructive, including: Baird expecting a merger within 12 to 18 months, Starship poised for the July 23 test flight, and the ongoing "Mega IPO ETFs" effect among Nasdaq heavyweight issuers. Yet the stock closed down 6.70%, with volume reaching 86.34 million shares. 24/7 Wall St. ran the headline "SpaceX Just Erased $1 Trillion in Value. Here's Why the Worst Could Be Yet to Come," highlighting the market's deep unease ahead of the August 6 Q2 earnings release and subsequent lockup waves. Sentiment: superficially mild-to-positive, but in reality panicked distribution; clear divergence between price and sentiment.

2026-07-23 (Thu, intraday): Roughly the US$116.07 / 122.19 range

Premarket, SPCX rose to US$116.07 before pulling back; Investing.com showed an intraday US$122.19, down 1.10%. With Starship Flight 13 imminent, bulls are hoping a successful flight will spark a rebound. Sentiment: neutral-to-positive, awaiting a catalyst.

III. Have Sentiment and Price Moved in Sync?

Overall, sentiment and price moved in the same direction on 5 of the 7 trading days (7/15, 7/16, 7/17, 7/20, 7/21), about 71%.

But 7/22 showed a clear divergence: Tesla merger speculation heated up, the Starship test flight was imminent, and most headlines leaned bullish, yet the stock plunged 6.70% in a single session, hitting a fresh interim low of US$115.19. Negative drivers (the imminent lockup expiry, pre-earnings观望 selling pressure ahead of the August 6 Q2 release, and forced buy/sell imbalances among institutions and ETFs) outweighed the positive news.

7/13 (Mon, premarket 144.70, open 139.14, close -4.24%) showed a similar divergence: throughout the week, several media outlets still wrapped coverage in long-term bullish framing such as "20-year hold," yet real money continued to withdraw.

IV. Conclusion and Risk Notes

SPCX fell roughly 14.8% cumulatively over the past seven trading sessions, dropping from US$135.27 to US$115.26 (with an interim low of US$119.68). News sentiment and share price weakened broadly in tandem, but 7/22 was a textbook divergence day, reflecting that lockup and profit-taking pressure far exceeds the fundamental tailwinds.

Key risks:

1. Lockup expiration waves: The 180-day lockup (mid-December) will release 911.5 million shares, with subsequent tranches unlocking in roughly 7% increments.
2. Outcome of Starship Flight 13: Another failure would further undermine the rationale for a US$2 trillion valuation.
3. Q2 earnings (August 6): Profitability and cash flow will be the key checkpoint for validating the US$1.5 to 2 trillion market cap.
4. Probability of merger talk materializing: If the 90% expectation is disproven, the bull narrative will unravel quickly.

This article is for informational compilation and sentiment observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own judgments, strictly control position sizing, and avoid heavy directional bets during the peak of lockup expirations.